Teknik Analiz & Strateji

What is technical analysis?

Earn money by learning technical analysis!

What is technical analysis?

Technical analysis is the study of financial market action. The technician looks at price changes and
Occurs from day to day or week to week, or any other fixed time period displayed in it.
graphical form called chart. Hence the name table analysis.

A chartist analyzes price charts only, while a technical analyst studies derived technical indicators.
from price changes in addition to price charts. Technical analysts study the price action of financial markets rather than the (seemingly) fundamental factors that affect market prices. Technicians, all relevant information.

If a particular market or stock exists, you still cannot predict a definitive market “response” to it.
information. There are so many factors interacting at any given time that it’s easy for those who matter.
being overlooked in favor of what is considered the “flavor of the day”.
The technical analyst believes that all relevant market information is reflected (or discounted) below.
price excluding shocking news like natural disasters or acts of God. But these factors are discounted very quickly.

When watching the financial markets, it becomes clear that there are trends, momentum, and patterns.
not exactly in the same way but similarly over time. Graphs are similar because they show the same thing.
fractal structure (a fractal is a small pattern; self-similar means that the overall pattern consists of smaller structures. (versions of the same model) stocks, commodities, bitcoin, currencies, bonds. A painting is a mirror. Therefore technical analysis of fundamental factors, not the mood of the crowd, analysis of human mass psychology. For this reason, it is also called behavioral finance.

Technical analysis pre-fetches fundamental data

Fundamentalists believe that there is a cause and effect between fundamental factors and price changes.
This means that if the fundamental news is positive, the price should go up, and if the news is negative, the price should go up. the price should drop. However, long-term analyzes of price changes in financial markets around the world shows that such a correlation exists only in the short-term horizon and only to a limited extent. This not in the medium and long term.

In fact, the opposite is true. The stock market itself is the best predictor of the foundation of the future.
flow. Often times, prices start to rise in a new bull trend while the economy is still in a recession.
B in the chart shown above), that is, when there is no reason for such an uptrend. On the contrary, prices are starting. It enters a new bear trend while the economy is still growing (position A) and offers no fundamental reasons for selling. There is a time lag of several months where the underlying trend follows.
stock market trend. Moreover, this is not only for the stock market and the economy, but also for
price trends of individual stocks and company earnings. Stock prices peak ahead of peak gains and bottom out ahead of peak losses.

The purpose of technical analysis is to identify trend changes that precede the fundamental.
Doesn’t make sense (yet) when compared to trend and simultaneous underlying trend.

Mood governs rate

Get to know yourself and stock market information will follow soon. Ego and emotions determine distance
Most of the stock market decisions of investors are more than they are willing to accept.
We’ve dealt with professional money managers and committees for years and found them to be the same.

As any novice investor, he’s too exposed to crowd following and other irrational emotional mistakes. Them
they were often better informed, but facts alone are not enough to make profitable decisions. The human element, which encompasses a range of emotions, fear of greed plays a much greater role
more in the decision-making process.

Most investors notice. In practical terms, most investors move. the opposite of rational wisdom
buy low and sell high very predictable emotional responses rising or falling prices. falling prices
Negotiations that seem like bargains at first create fear of losing at much lower prices when opportunities come your way. The biggest. Rising prices, which at first seem like good opportunities to sell, ultimately lead to greedy purchases at much higher levels. Reason replaces emotion and rationalization with something like this.
cyclical regularity, recognizing symptoms and trend changes in charts Make good use of this information.

Investors who manage to act contrary to the mood of the crowd and their own feelings,
is in the best position to make money in the financial markets. Financial risk and emotional risk correlation

Optimism, pessimism, greed and fear

Why aren’t more people making more money in financial markets? Because as we see,
People are motivated by greed (optimism) when buying and fear (pessimism) when selling. People
They are motivated to buy and sell by changes in emotions from optimism to pessimism and vice versa.
They formulate basic scenarios based on their emotional state (rationalization of emotions), which prevents them from realizing that the main impulse is emotion.

The chart above shows that investors BUY if they buy on the basis of confidence or belief (optimism).
near or at the top. Likewise, if investors act on anxiety or surrender (pessimism), or BELOW. Traders remain below the bullish trend of the recent uptrend. It is during a major part of the bearish trend that forms the top of the price. Otherwise, they remain pessimistic. bearish impression from the past downtrend along and most of the market bottom next bull trend.

They adjust their bullish baseline scenarios to decline AFTER. AFTER being pessimistic under the pressure of a downtrend or optimistic under the pressure of an uptrend. After entering a downtrend, investors formulate bearish scenarios, more weakness when it’s time to buy again. The same thing happens in an uptrend when the mood is up. shifts from pessimism to optimism. Investors formulate bullish scenarios AFTER they are bullish,

This is after a large part of the bull trend has already ended. Emotions are the downside of the foundation.
analysis. Investors should learn to buy when they are afraid (pessimistic) and sell when they feel euphoric (optimistic). This may sound easy (simple counter-argument), but without Technical Analysis
difficult to obtain.

The main purpose of technical analysis is to help traders identify the turning points they face.
cannot see due to individual and group psychological factors.


Bar Charts
Four bar charts of the Swiss Market Index given above. They are the most commonly used
chart types. Bar charts are: High-low graphics or High-low-off graphics or on-high-low-off graphics
A single bar shows the highest and lowest values relevant trade period. Vertical bar is used
Connect high and low. horizontal lines It is used to show the opening price (left) and closing price (right) of that particular trading period.

end of the period. For example, on monthly chart, one bar high and Low at which SMI is traded in this single row moon.line chartsSometimes we use line charts, especially Elliott wave analysis. The line chart is the simplest. all methods. It is built by putting together closing price of each period, for example daily
closes for daily line chart, weekly closes for weekly chart or monthly closes monthly line chart.

Support and Resistance

Resistance lines are horizontal lines that started at an extreme price peak recently.
horizontally to the future Support lines are horizontal lines that start at the extreme end of the lowest correction and also point to the future on the time axis. As long as the uptrend continues, it continues.
the latest peak is surpassed and new peak levels are reached. As long as the downtrend continues Past lows are broken, continuing a series of lower lows and lower highs.

Note, previous support often turns into resistance, and resistance turns into support. Resistance or support line becomes more important, and breaks above or below these lines gain more credibility as a number.
extreme price extremes (highs for resistance or lows for support) that can be tied in a single line

Some examples for Microsoft are shown in the table above. Microsoft hits 19th highest in July
1997. The price started to improve from there and Microsoft remained below that level until February.
1998. 19 was resistance, so only 19 (highest peak ever) had the uptrend) been broken to the upside, the stock would confirm its uptrend. same It applies to the peak on 30 July 1998. When the price broke above that, the uptrend was confirmed. Resistance in November 1998

Support levels are positioned for example 11, 15, 20.5 or 22. As long as the price goes up
holds above past highs (resistance levels) and past support levels (does not break them) uptrend
remains intact. The same goes for the bear trend. The downtrend remains intact as long as the price is.
falls below recent lows (support levels) and cannot rise above past resistance levels. The downtrend reverses when the price breaks the latest support below. failing to rise above the last resistance. An uptrend reversal occurs when the price rises. penetrates the last resistance after holding it above the last support.

How Can I draw trendline? How can I use Trendline?

Trend Lines

Resistance levels can be drawn with horizontal lines (as discussed on the previous page), or
There may be rising or falling lines.

A trendline is nothing but a straight line drawn between at least three points. on a rise
low points connect to form an uptrend line. For a downtrend, the peaks are interconnected. this
The important point is that the price action should not be pulled over. trend lines, all
price data, i.e. combine highs in a downtrend and lows in an uptrend.

The trendline becomes more important and gains credibility as the number of extreme price extremes increases.increases by connecting with a single line. Validity and viability of a line connecting only two prices
endpoints (e.g. starting point and a low price) are questionable.

The trend is broken when the price breaks below the uptrend line or rises above the downtrend line.
Some analysts use a 2-day rule, meaning the trend is only seen as broken if the price closes.
above/below the trendline for at least two days. Others use a 1% stop (may be higher depending on)
market volatility), meaning that the trend is only seen as broken if the price closes above/below 1%
trend line.

The chart above shows Intel’s rise from July 1996 to March 1997. According to the bullish line, traders could hold the position from 38/40 to 66 or even 74/76. Oftentimes, investors take profits too early. Stay with a trend until it breaks and avoid the urge to sell
soon because the profit may be higher than you originally thought.

Investment horizons

The charts on the previous pages show that investors need perspective. It is imperative to distinguish between a short-term, medium-term and long-term trend. If someone tells you to buy Make sure you understand if the dollar is expected to rise, as the US dollar is likely to rise. if you need to buy it in a few days or a few months and with the intention of holding the dollar for a few years
days, weeks or months.

The long-term horizon for a technician on the trading floor is completely different from that of an institutional investor. For a trader it could mean a few days long term, while for an investor it could mean 12 to 12 days.
18 months.

We can compare tables and indicators with a clock (shown above). Short-term trends (seconds)
best analyzed on daily bar charts. Medium-term trends (minutes) are best seen on the weekly bar
charts and long-term trends (hours) are best seen on monthly bar charts. Some investors just
Some want to know the time, some want to know the second, some want to know the exact time.
The best investment results are achieved when all three trends are applied daily, weekly and monthly.
graphs point in the same direction.

How can ı use trends?

What trend?
The chart above shows three US dollars/Switzerland. Frank trends.

1) The uptrend from 1995 to 1997 is long term. Also called PRIMARY trend (Hours). IT
It was broken by the 1998 fall. long term the uptrend is not a straight line, minor corrections.

2) These adjustments are mid-term or medium-term trends (Minutes). These Also called SECONDARY trends. The medium-term correction is not a straight line either, consists of minor corrections.

3) These minor trends are short-term trends. These are also called MINOR trends (second).
A minor downtrend can itself be part of a medium-term uptrend. long-term primary downtrend. Sometimes it’s hard to distinguish short and medium term or long term trend. Technical analysis helps you distinguish various trends in all financial markets and instruments.

Moving Averages
Moving averages are popular and versatile identify price trends. They smooth out fluctuations in market prices, thus identify key trends. Other functions are to signal important changes direction as early as possible.
The simple moving average is the most common Used. Its calculation is shown above in mathematical form and in the table on the right. For the 5-day moving average, simply add: closing prices and splitting of the last five closings this is a total of 5. You add and skip each new closing.

So the sum of closures always stays constant at 5 days. Whether you choose a 10-day average or a 40- week average, calculation is the same; in its place by adding five days, you add 10 days or 40 weeks and divide the total by 10 or 40 respectively.

In most of our research, we use the moving average length of the Fibonacci series (see page 29).
We use 13-day and 21-day averages to analyze the short-term trend. for the medium term
We use 34-day and 55-day averages as a trend. 89-days and 144-days for long-term trend
day averages. We also analyze very long-term trends, called secular trends.
233-day, 377-day, 610-day and 987-day moving averages.

What is moving average? How can I use MA’s?

Moving average crossover

The short-term, medium-term and long-term moving averages are all displayed here on the daily chart.
21-day moving average is shown here for short-term trend, 55-day moving average
144-day moving average for medium-term trend and long-term trend. displaying
three moving averages on a single chart provide important moving average-based signals
trends and transitions.

BUY and SELL signals are issued
– when the price crosses the moving average
– when the moving average itself changes directionand
– when moving averages cross each other

A short-term (transactional) buy signal (B1) is issued when the price rises above the 21-day moving average.
The buy signal is confirmed when the 21-day average itself starts to rise. Short-term (trade) selling
signal (S1) is given in the opposite direction.

A medium-term (tactical) buy signal (B2) is issued when the price breaks above the 55-day move level.
average. It is confirmed when the 21-day average rises above the 55-day average and the 55-day average.
the average itself begins to rise. A medium-term (tactical) sell signal (S2) is issued in the opposite direction.
A long-term (strategic) buy signal (B3) is issued when the price breaks above the 144-day moving average. The 55-day average is above the 144-day moving average, andThe 144-day average itself begins to rise. Conversely, give a long-term (strategic) sell signal (S3)


In physics, momentum is measured by velocity. increase and decrease in speed article. It is measured in financial markets as follows: the speed of the price trend, that is, a not, the trend is accelerating or decelerating. the actual price level itself. While moving averages are lagging indicators,
signaling after the price trend has already formed turned, momentum indicators are driving price flow. They signal before the price trend rotary. But once the momentum signals should be confirmed by a moving average cross over.

Instead of calculating the moving average of the sum of the 5 days (see page 12), here
The difference in the fixed 5-day period for the 5-day exchange rate. This is shown in the chart above
with the zero line. If today’s price is higher than five days ago, the indicator is positive, i.e.
above the zero line. If the price continues to rise compared to five days ago, the indicator will go up. if

The price today is lower than five days, the indicator is negative, that is, below the zero line. Ratio
The exchange oscillator is highly variable. Therefore, we fixed it (see blue line), so that
It provides easy-to-read direction change signals as described on the next page.

Moving averages are always displayed on the same chart and on the same scale as the price they were quoted. is calculated. Momentum indicators are calculated using the price difference instead of adding up.
prices (as in moving averages). Therefore, momentum indicators are a scale different from price scale. In the chart above, it is shown with the scale on the left.

Momentum indicator signals
The principle of momentum applies to driving as well as price movements. When?
prices rise and the momentum indicator rises as well, accelerating the price uptrend. when prices rise
and the indicator drops, the price uptrend slows down. When prices drop and momentum indicator
If it falls, the downtrend accelerates.

When prices fall and the indicator rises, the price is bearish slows down. For this reason, momentum indicators should be applied in conjunction with moving averages. The momentum oscillator can be in one of four quadrants:

Up quadrant (u): The oscillator is below the zero line and rising.
Advancing quadrant (a): The oscillator is above the zero line and rising.
Down quadrant (d): Above the zero line and descending oscillator.
Terminating quarter (t): Below the Zero Line and descending oscillator.
The indicator is shown above in an idealized form (bell curve).

The same oscillator also applies monthly,
Weekly or daily charts to determine long, medium and short term momentum. length
the time axis that differentiates the three time horizons.

The strategy is currently being used successfully and is making a profit. For this strategy and more, you can follow my telegram channel here.

This is an advanced strategy, and you can request participation from Engin ERDEBIL in the One-to-One Mentoring and Zero Exchange Training programs to improve your level. Thanks to stock market education, you can specialize in this business by using your time efficiently.

You can also earn regular income in Cryptocurrencies thanks to the EE-RSI Scalper Signal System + Indicator Set.



Engin Erdebil

Merhaba, ben Engin ERDEBİL. Borsa (hisse senedi, kripto para) ve diğer finansal enstrümanlar üzerinde 10 yıldan uzun süredir uğraşmaktayım.Bu süreçte yaşadığım maddi ve manevi deneyimlerim sayesinde borsa analizi konusunda A’dan Z’ye bilgi sahibi oldum.Bununla sınırlı kalmayarak alanında 25 yılın üzerinde deneyimi olan uzman ekonomistlerden birebir dersler aldım. Ekonomi ve borsa analizi için aldığım kitaplar bana çok yardımcı oldu. Temel amacım, bu işin temelini ve tekniğini öğrenmekti. Sonrasında bu işin inceliklerini bilgim dahilinde insanlarla paylaşmak istedim.Şu sıralarda Sermaye Piyasası ve Borsa alanında yüksek lisans eğitimime devam ediyorum.

İlgili Makaleler

Bir cevap yazın

E-posta hesabınız yayımlanmayacak. Gerekli alanlar * ile işaretlenmişlerdir

Başa dön tuşu